Express Entry Forecast: What Recent Trends Tell Us About the Next Draw

Canada’s Express Entry Next Draw Prediction system has entered a new chapter in 2025, marked by evolving priorities, strategic draw categories, and unpredictable timing. Here’s a closer look at the trends, implications, and what to expect next:

Biweekly Draw Rhythm Continues

• Draws have frequently occurred every one to two weeks throughout the year—June saw draws on June 2, 4, 10, 12, 23, and 26; July featured back‑to‑back draws on July 7 and 8.

• Projections suggest the next draw could fall around July 21–22, aligning with this pattern.

  
  

Category‑Specific Focus Remains Strong

• Canadian Experience Class (CEC) has dominated recent draws: a large draw on July 8 issued 3,000 ITAs with a cutoff of CRS 518.

• Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) draws continue every couple weeks, albeit in smaller sizes, e.g., July 7 saw 356 ITAs with CRS 750.

• Category‑based draws (French‑language, healthcare, trades, education) persist, with French‑language rounds drawing thousands—like 7,500 in March at CRS 379.

  
  

CRS Patterns Reflect Tightening Competition

• CEC draws have required annually high CRS scores—518 on July 8, and 547 in May.

• PNP draws push the cutoff even higher (e.g., 763 for April 14 draw)

• The overall average CRS remains elevated due to fewer total ITAs and IRCC's influx of high-scoring candidates remaining in the pool

  
  

2025–27 Level Plan Shaping Everything

• Canada’s admissions plan slashes PNP allocations from 110,000 (2024) to 55,000 in 2025

• CEC and category-based draws are prioritized, aligning with federal goals of retaining in‑Canada talent and servicing critical sectors

• Category-based draws may appear 1–2 times monthly, especially for healthcare, trades, and French speakers, with ~41,700 seats allocated

  
  

General (All-Program) Draws Are on Hiatus

• IRCC hasn’t held a general draw since April 23, 2024, and with the shift against broad invites, another may not materialize in 2025

  
  

Next Draw Outlook

• Timing: Likely between July 21–24, keeping the biweekly rhythm.

• Type: Expect a CEC draw next, given the July 8 pattern, with ~3,000 invitations. Alternatively, a PNP draw could take place.

• Cutoff: CEC draws likely hover around CRS 515–525, while PNP draws may exceed 700.

  
  

What You Should Do Now

1. Ensure your profile is flawless: Keep it active, accurate, and reflective of your current CRS potential.

2. Monitor IRCC updates: New draw types or changes could shift trends—subscribe to alerts.

3. Boost your CRS: Pursue CLB 9/10 on language tests, French proficiency, or additional work/education credentials.

4. Explore PNP options: If your CRS is high, provincial pathways can fast‑track your invitation.

5. Consider category draws: French speakers, healthcare/trades professionals, and educators should position accordingly.

   
   

Final Word

Express Entry is evolving from broad invitations to a highly targeted, strategic model. While cutoffs remain challenging, there are golden opportunities for skilled CEC candidates and category-aligned applicants. With potentially another draw imminent around July 21–24, stay sharp—and make sure your profile is ready to hit “invite me” when the time comes.